2019 MLB Predictions
Predictions for the 2019 MLB Season – please submit your own predictions in the Comments section below!
2019 AL East Winner | New York Yankees |
2019 AL Central Winner | Minnesota Twins |
2019 AL West Winner | Houston Astros |
2019 AL Wild Card 1 | Boston Red Sox |
2019 AL Wild Card 2 | Los Angeles Angels |
2019 NL East Winner | Philadelphia Phillies |
2019 NL Central Winner | Chicago Cubs |
2019 NL West Winner | Los Angeles Dodgers |
2019 NL Wild Card 1 | St. Louis Cardinals |
2019 NL Wild Card 2 | Colorado Rockies |
2019 ALCS Winner | New York Yankees |
2019 NLCS Winner | Los Angeles Dodgers |
2019 World Series Champions | New York Yankees |
2019 AL MVP | Mike Trout |
2019 AL Cy Young | Chris Sale |
2019 AL Rookie of the Year | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. |
2019 NL MVP | Nolan Arenado |
2019 NL Cy Young | Aaron Nola |
2019 NL Rookie of the Year | Fernando Tatis Jr. |
The Yankees feature a robust offense, well-built bullpen and a respectable starting staff along with depth throughout their roster. New York and Boston will battle valiantly into September and I suspect this race will come down to the wire. The Red Sox are an offensive juggernaut with a talented rotation. However their bullpen concerns leave them vulnerable in the late innings. Tampa Bay surprised many prognosticators in 2018. They have many moving parts (utility players, “openers”, etc.) and I believe they can give the Bronx Bombers and the BoSox a run for their money. The highlight of Toronto’s season will be the highly anticipated arrival of the sons of former Major Leaguers. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s debut along with Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio portend a Blue Jays’ renaissance in the coming years, but not in 2019. Baltimore is in full rebuild mode… other than watching the development of their prospects and flipping a few veterans at the trade deadline, there’s not much to see here.
Despite the defections of Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion, Cody Allen and Andrew Miller, many predict Cleveland to run away with the AL Central by at least 10 games. In my opinion the final result will be much closer as Minnesota’s young talent gels with their veteran acquisitions (Nelson Cruz, Jonathan Schoop, Marwin Gonzalez). In various states of roster overhauls, the Royals, Tigers and White Sox vie for third place. I’ll give the nod to the Pale Hose, with Kansas City edging Detroit for 4th place.
Houston is the class of the AL West, although their rotation took a hit with the departures of Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton. Second place will be up for grabs between the upstart Athletics and the re-tooled Angels. Seattle and Texas fight for the scraps at the bottom of the heap.
The four-way battle for supremacy in the National League East will be a hard-fought campaign. I selected the Phillies to emerge victorious but I could have just as easily selected the Braves, Mets or Nationals. Excited to see a full season of Ronald Acuna Jr. (Atlanta), Victor Robles and Juan Soto (Washington) in 2019. The Marlins’ pitching staff could surprise a few folks but this squad has the long road back to contention.
Figuring on a bit of regression for the Brew Crew this year, I’m looking for the Cubbies and Redbirds to clash for the NL Central crown. All of the contenders in this division have bullpen issues that need to be addressed. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are no pushovers but I have them coming up a bit short.
San Diego’s offseason addition of Manny Machado along with the promotion of prospects Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack provide evidence of the Friars’ desire to make this a 3-team race. The Dodgers and Rockies remain the class of the NL West and should push each other towards playoff berths. Arizona reset their clock when they dealt franchise first-sacker Paul Goldschmidt. I’m puzzled by the Giants inability to look to the future… the current roster seems to be in dire need of a reboot.
I am a New Jersey native with a passion for baseball, statistics, computers and video games who enjoys spending quality time with his family. Co-chair of the SABR Games and Simulations Committee (https://sabrbaseballgaming.com) since August 2022.
Visit my Amazon author page to check out my books, promotional videos, and post a review if you're a Hardball Retro fan!
https://www.amazon.com/author/derekbain
My Books:
“Hardball Architects – Volume 1 (American League Teams)”, published in July 2020, is available in paperback and digital (Kindle) format at Amazon.com.
“Hardball Architects – Volume 2 (National League Teams)”, published in April 2022, is available in paperback and digital (Kindle) format at Amazon.com.
“Hardball Architects” examines the trades, free agent acquisitions, draft picks and other transactions for the 30 Major League Baseball franchises, divided into a 2-volume set (American League and National League). All key moves are scrutinized for every team and Sabermetric principles are applied to the roster construction throughout the lifetime of the organization to encapsulate the hits and misses by front office executives.
“Hardball Retroactive”, published in June 2018, is available in paperback and digital (Kindle) format at Amazon.com. A cross-section of essays that I penned for Seamheads.com along with my Baseball Analytics blog spanning nearly a decade touching on subjects including "Taking the Extra Base", "General Manager Scorecard", "Worst Trades", "BABIP By Location" and "Baseball Birthplaces and the Retro World Baseball Classic". Rediscover your favorite hardball arcade and simulations in "Play Retro Baseball Video Games In Your Browser" or take a deep dive into every franchise's minor league successes and failures in relation to their major league operations in "Minors vs. Majors".
“Hardball Retrospective” is available in paperback and digital (Kindle) format at Amazon.com. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com. In Hardball Retrospective, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original teams. Using a variety of advanced statistics and methods, I generated revised standings for each season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition. Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the real-time or “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.
Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.
“Hardball Retrospective - Addendum 2014 to 2016” supplements my research for Hardball Retrospective, providing retroactive standings based on Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and Win Shares (WS) for each "original" team over the past three seasons (2014-2016). Team totals from 2010 - 2013 are included for reference purposes. “Addendum” is available in paperback and digital (Kindle) format at Amazon.com.